Ashes and Adaptation: Sudan’s ESG Reckoning in a Time of Conflict, Collapse, and Climate Extremes

It’s been over a year since Khartoum fell to chaos. Once a city of poets, pyramids, and the promise of democratic transition, Sudan is now a nation torn by civil war, displaced by climate, and disfigured by the weight of militarized governance and ecological decay. But even in this fog of conflict, something deeper stirs beneath the surface: a reckoning with sustainability—not as a trend, but as a matter of survival.

Sudan is not an ESG darling. It is a cautionary tale. A country where decades of authoritarian rule, economic volatility, and environmental degradation have converged into a perfect storm. Yet among burned villages and broken ministries, communities are building resilience from the ground up—through water cooperatives, reforestation brigades, and a quiet reimagining of what sustainability could mean in a collapsed state.

“We no longer speak of long-term development,” says a Sudanese climate researcher now based in Nairobi. “We speak of protection. Of dignity. Of survival. If ESG can exist in Sudan, it must first serve those who have nothing left but the land beneath their feet.”

1. ESG in Context: A Nation in Ruin, a People in Flight

• GDP (2024 est.): ~$30 billion (nominal)

• Population: ~48 million

• GDP per capita: ~$620

• Poverty rate: ~55% (and rising)

• Inflation (2024 est.): >200%

• Displaced persons: >10 million (5M internally, 5M across borders)

• Armed conflict: RSF vs Sudanese Armed Forces since April 2023

Sudan is:

• A failed state with no unified government

• Africa’s 3rd largest country by land, rich in resources but impoverished in governance

• Facing the biggest humanitarian crisis of 2024, according to UN OCHA

• A place where climate change, war, and governance collapse form a three-headed hydra

There are no ESG indices here. No stock exchange. No green bonds. But there are ecosystems, communities, and futures worth defending—which is where ESG must begin.

2. Environmental Sustainability: The Sahel Burns, the Nile Shrinks

2.1 Climate Fragility and Ecological Collapse

Sudan is one of the most climate-vulnerable nations on Earth:

• Rising temperatures outpacing global averages

• Rainfall decline of 20–30% in key agricultural zones (Kordofan, Darfur)

• Desertification advancing southward by 100km per decade

• Nile water disputes intensifying with Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD)

Disasters:

• Flash floods displace tens of thousands annually, especially in Gezira and Kassala

• Dust storms (haboobs) increasing in frequency, affecting air quality and crops

• Forest loss (+ charcoal trade) accelerating in conflict-affected regions

Sudan’s updated NDC (2021)—now largely defunct—committed to:

• 35% GHG reduction by 2030, conditional on international finance

• Focus on: agriculture, water, energy, forestry, and early warning systems

• Financing required: $12.9 billion, 90% dependent on external aid

2.2 Energy and Natural Resource Challenges

Energy landscape:

• ~60% of Sudan’s energy comes from biomass (wood, charcoal)

• National electrification rate: ~40%

• Hydropower (Merowe Dam) contributes ~30%, but is vulnerable to drought and sabotage

• No functioning national energy policy since 2021

Emerging potential:

• Abundant solar irradiation across the northern and eastern deserts

• Wind corridors identified in Red Sea state

• Gold and oil reserves—often fueling conflict, not development

Barriers:

• Infrastructure destroyed or inaccessible

• Decentralized militias extorting or blocking energy projects

• No investment climate or regulatory agency functioning since mid-2023

3. Social Sustainability: Displacement, Dignity, and the Social Fabric Torn

3.1 Human Development in Freefall

• HDI: 0.510 (2023) – among the lowest globally

• Life expectancy: ~63 years

• Literacy: ~61%, lower among women and rural youth

• School attendance: collapsed in many regions due to war and displacement

Social indicators:

• Hospitals looted or destroyed in Khartoum, El Geneina, and Nyala

• Maternal mortality among the highest in the world

• Food insecurity: ~18 million in crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3+)

• Over 7,000 schools non-functional due to occupation or damage

3.2 Gender, Refugees, and the Social Compact

Women and girls:

• Systemic sexual violence used as a weapon of war

• Girls’ education interrupted in most conflict zones

• Women’s cooperatives in farming and water management remain critical to survival

Displacement:

• Over 10 million displaced, many multiple times

• Largest refugee flows into Chad, South Sudan, Egypt, Ethiopia

• Camps becoming permanent climate-exposed settlements

Social resilience:

• Faith-based groups, tribal elders, and local NGOs fill governance voids

• Informal solidarity networks coordinate water, food, and protection

• Diaspora sending $1–1.5 billion/year in remittances, often via hawala or mobile money

4. Governance: Collapse, Contestation, and the ESG Vacuum

4.1 Institutional Disintegration

There is no unified government of Sudan:

• Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) control parts of the east and north

• Rapid Support Forces (RSF) control much of Darfur and Khartoum

• Civilian authorities in exile (Forces for Freedom and Change, Resistance Committees)

• UN mediation efforts stalled, African Union sidelined

Corruption and ESG:

• Sudan ranks 172/180 on Transparency International’s CPI (2023)

• Resources (gold, oil, timber) often extracted illegally or by warlords

• No functioning judiciary, regulatory bodies, or planning ministries

4.2 ESG Regulation and Informal Systems

There is no formal ESG framework in Sudan. But:

• Local cooperatives track water access, reforestation, and gender inclusion

• NGOs and UN agencies use SDG-aligned metrics in project monitoring

• Some rebel-held zones have proto-governance systems regulating land and forest use

Examples:

• In South Kordofan, farmer unions document climate resilience indicators

• In Darfur, women-led councils manage peace gardens and seed banks

• In eastern refugee camps, community groups co-manage solar water pumps

5. ESG Finance: Humanitarian First, Climate Second

5.1 Humanitarian-Climate Nexus

Sudan receives billions in humanitarian aid, but only a fraction for climate resilience:

• 2024 UN appeal: $2.6 billion, only 38% funded

• GCF readiness programs suspended due to governance breakdown

• World Bank, AfDB, and IMF paused all programs since 2023

Key actors now:

• ICRC, WFP, UNDP, FAO, OCHA, CARE, NRC

• Focus on cash-for-resilience, reforestation, and emergency water systems

• Some climate-smart agriculture pilots continue in safe zones (e.g., Blue Nile)

5.2 Remittances, Informal ESG, and Diaspora Capital

• Remittances = Sudan’s largest source of foreign exchange

• Diaspora funds schools, clinics, local solar kits—often bypassing formal channels

• Islamic finance and waqf (charitable foundations) fund some ESG-like projects

Innovation:

• Mobile money used for climate-insurance pilots in refugee camps

• Community groups issuing impact reports to international donors

• Youth-led tech collectives mapping deforestation and climate risk via satellite

6. ESG Case Studies: Sudan in Fragmented Motion

Case Study 1: Women’s Reforestation Brigades (North Darfur)

• Local women planting acacia and moringa trees for soil restoration

• Trees used for food, fuel, and erosion control

• Funded by diaspora remittances and small UN grants

• Governance provided by informal village councils

Case Study 2: Solar Water Cooperatives (Blue Nile State)

• Solar pumps installed by NGOs, maintained by local youth

• Water shared across ethnic and tribal lines to reduce conflict

• Cooperatives tracking usage, rainfall, and recharge rates

Case Study 3: Peace Gardens in Displacement Camps

• Communal gardens in refugee camps (e.g., White Nile)

• Provide food, income, trauma healing

• Managed by women, supported by FAO and UN Women

• ESG indicators include nutrition, income, social cohesion

7. Comparative ESG Snapshot: Fragile States (Africa)

Indicator (2023)	Sudan	South Sudan	Somalia	CAR	Eritrea
GHG per capita (tCO₂e)	~0.3	~0.2	~0.1	~0.2	~0.2
Renewable electricity (%)	~40%	~12%	~30%	~15%	~50%
ESG regulation	None	None	None	None	No data
Sovereign green bond issued	No	No	No	No	No
TI Corruption Rank (2023)	172/180	178	175	157	No data

*Sudan sits at the bottom of the ESG pyramid—but holds enormous potential for resilience-based, justice-centered ESG innovation.

8. Strategic ESG Risks and Opportunities

Risks

• Active conflict and displacement

• Environmental degradation fueling further violence

• Total breakdown of institutions

• Donor fatigue and lack of oversight

Opportunities

1. Scale community-based climate adaptation in safe zones

2. Channel diaspora and Islamic finance into ESG-aligned impact projects

3. Integrate ESG metrics into humanitarian programming

4. Support women-led environmental governance

5. Prepare for post-conflict green reconstruction anchored in just transition principles

   
   

Conclusion: A Nation in Ashes, A People Still Planting

Sudan is not an ESG market. It is an ESG mirror—reflecting the limits of global frameworks that cannot yet reach the places most in need of sustainability, justice, and peace.

And yet, among the ruins, Sudanese communities are building the future with their hands, their seeds, and their hope. If ESG is to mean anything in the 21st century, it must mean something here.